US-China Economic Decoupling — Trade War Game Scenarios

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## Overview Chinese researchers have modeled a hypothetical scenario of complete US-China economic decoupling, finding that other countries could unexpectedly benefit from such a split, according to a quantitative trade model study (SCMP, September 12). ## Key Findings - Two researchers based in Guangdong province used a data-based economic framework — a quantitative trade model — to estimate how a full severance of US-China trade relations would ripple through the global economy (SCMP, September 12). - The study suggests that if the world's two largest economies were to sever trade relations entirely, a number of other countries could see economic dividends (SCMP, September 12). ## Context and Significance The research emerges amid ongoing US-China trade and technology tensions, including disputes over AI/chip espionage, export controls, and tariffs. It reflects Chinese academic interest in modeling decoupling scenarios as the rivalry deepens ahead of Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington. The findings could inform Chinese policy narratives suggesting decoupling may not be as damaging to global trade as commonly assumed, or could be used to encourage third countries to see opportunity in taking sides. ## Related Developments This analysis surfaces alongside separate reports of China urging the US to "stop all spying" on its AI and chip sectors, underscoring how trade and technology tensions are intertwined ahead of high-level bilateral diplomacy (SCMP, September 12).