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US-China Critical Minerals Competition – Strategy & Policy (2026)
US-China competition over critical minerals continued to intensify in 2026, spanning tungsten (Kazakhstan mining competition, 200%+ price surge) and now lithium, with China announcing a roughly 70% expansion of its Jiada Lithium Mine resource base in Sichuan (SCMP, October 3, 2026), strengthening Beijing's domestic battery supply chain. The development follows the Trump-Xi Beijing summit where critical minerals were a central negotiating issue (Time, June 15, 2026).
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## US-China Critical Minerals Competition – Strategy & Policy (2026)
### Overview
The competition between the United States and China over critical minerals has intensified in 2026, with a new US strategic playbook emerging in the context of Trump-Xi diplomatic engagement. A Time Magazine analysis by Goldman Sachs President of Global Affairs Jared Cohen (Time, June 15, 2026) describes critical minerals as a key economic chokepoint that dominated the agenda when President Trump met Xi Jinping in Beijing in May 2026.
### Strategic Landscape
- **China's Dominance**: China controls a dominant share of the processing and refining of rare earth elements and other critical minerals essential to AI hardware, electric vehicles, defense systems, and clean energy technologies.
- **US Vulnerabilities**: The US remains heavily dependent on Chinese-processed critical minerals across multiple strategic supply chains.
- **Trump-Xi Summit**: Critical minerals reportedly featured as a central negotiating issue at the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit (Time, June 15, 2026).
- **US Policy Response**: A new US 'playbook' is reportedly emerging that includes diversification of supply chains, partnerships with allied and partner nations, and domestic production incentives.
- **Tungsten Case Study**: China has dominated the tungsten industry for decades; US-backed mining projects are now attempting to compete in Kazakhstan, where Chinese investment already holds an operating foothold (SCMP, October 3, 2026). Global tungsten prices have surged more than 200% since May 2025, per commodity data provider Argus Media, a rise that followed Beijing's export controls on selected tungsten products (SCMP, October 3, 2026).
- **Lithium Supply Expansion**: China has expanded the registered resource base of the Jiada Lithium Mine in Sichuan province by about 70%, following recent detection efforts, bringing the deposit's total resources to 2.53 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, with the newly registered portion adding roughly 1.05 million tonnes (SCMP, October 3, 2026). This bolsters China's domestic long-term supply potential for lithium, a key input for EV and energy-storage batteries (SCMP, October 3, 2026).
### Key Actors & Initiatives
- Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions are analyzing and financing critical minerals diversification (Time, June 15, 2026).
- US-Argentina critical minerals partnership and Brazil rare earth processing requirements reflect broader Western hemisphere strategy.
- The EU RESourceEU platform and European bank financing of critical minerals are parallel allied-nation efforts.
- Chile's copper sector and Congo's cobalt remain central to Western supply chain diversification.
- Kazakhstan has emerged as a new front in US efforts to counter Chinese dominance in tungsten supply chains, with US-backed mining projects competing against existing Chinese investment there (SCMP, October 3, 2026).
### Legal & Business Implications
- Investment opportunities and risks in mining, processing, and logistics across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia.
- Export control and sanctions frameworks increasingly applied to critical mineral supply chains, including China's tungsten export controls (SCMP, October 3, 2026).
- Environmental and human rights due diligence obligations for companies sourcing from diversification markets.
- Expanded domestic resource bases, such as China's Sichuan lithium deposit, may reduce near-term Chinese reliance on imported lithium and reinforce its position in global battery supply chains (SCMP, October 3, 2026).
### Watch Points
- Outcomes of Trump-Xi critical minerals negotiations.
- US domestic production and processing investment incentives.
- Chinese retaliatory export restrictions (China has already imposed sulfuric acid export bans in 2026, and tungsten export controls that preceded a 200%+ price surge since May 2025, per Argus Media via SCMP, October 3, 2026).
- Whether US-backed tungsten projects in Kazakhstan can meaningfully loosen China's grip on the sector.
- Whether China's expanded Sichuan lithium resource base translates into increased production capacity and affects global lithium pricing or Western diversification efforts.